Application of entropy spectral method for stream flow forecasting in northwest China

Abstract

Streamflow forecasting is vital for reservoir operation, flood control, power generation, river ecological restoration, irrigation and navigation. Although monthly streamflow time series are statistic, they also exhibit seasonal and periodic patterns. Using maximum Burg entropy, maximum configurational entropy and minimum relative entropy, the forecasting models for monthly streamflow series were constructed for five hydrological stations in northwest China. The evaluation criteria of average relative error (RE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R) and determination coefficient (DC) were selected as performance metrics. Results indicated that the RESA model had the highest forecasting accuracy, followed by the CESA model. However, the BESA model had the highest forecasting accuracy in a low-flow period, and the prediction accuracies of RESA and CESA models in the flood season were relatively higher. In future research, these entropy spectral analysis methods can further be applied to other rivers to verify the applicability in the forecasting of monthly streamflow in China.