The association between weather conditions and admissions to the paediatric intensive care unit for respiratory syncytial virus bronchiolitis

Abstract

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis is a leading cause of global child morbidity and mortality. Every year, seasonal RSV outbreaks put high pressure on paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) worldwide, including in the Netherlands, and this burden appears to be increasing. Weather conditions have a strong influence on RSV activity, and climate change has been proposed as a potential important determinant of future RSV-related health care utilisation. In this national study spanning a total of 13 years with 2161 PICU admissions for RSV bronchiolitis, we aimed (1) to identify meteorological variables that were associated with the number of PICU admissions for RSV bronchiolitis in the Netherlands and (2) to determine if longitudinal changes in these variables occurred over time as a possible explanation for the observed increase in PICU burden. Poisson regression modelling was used to identify weather variables (aggregated in months and weeks) that predicted PICU admissions, and linear regression analysis was used to assess changes in the weather over time. Maximum temperature and global radiation best predicted PICU admissions, with global radiation showing the most stable strength of effect in both month and week data. However, we did not observe a significant change in these weather variables over the 13-year time period. Based on our study, we could not identify changing weather conditions as a potential contributing factor to the increased RSV-related PICU burden in the Netherlands.