Gaussian process time-series models for structures under operational variability

Abstract

A wide range of vibrating structures are characterized by variable structural dynamics resulting from changes in environmental and operational conditions, posing challenges in their identification and associated condition assessment. To tackle this issue, the present contribution introduces a stochastic modeling methodology via Gaussian Process (GP) time-series models. In the presently introduced approach, the vibration response is represented by means of a random coefficient time-series model, whose coefficients comply with a GP regression on the environmental and operational parameters. The approach may be implemented in conjunction to any type of linear-in-the-parameters time-series model, ranging from simple AR models to more complex non-linear or non-stationary time-series models. The obtained GP time-series modeling approach provides an effective and compact global representation of the vibrational response of a structure under a wide span of environmental and operational conditions. The effectiveness of the postulated GP time-series models is demonstrated through two case studies: the first involves the identification of the vertical vibration response of the Humber bridge, evaluated over a period of three years; the second considers the long-term simulated vibration response of a wind turbine featuring non-stationary dynamics stemming from the rotor speed. In both cases, the variation of the average wind speed is the main driver of uncertainty, while, through application of the proposed GP time-series models, it is possible to track the resulting variation in modal quantities.