Societal adaptation options to changes in phenology

Abstract

In this chapter I provided a qualitative overview of how phenological changes will strongly influence human well-being through changes in primary production sectors depending on natural productivity, including agriculture, forestry and fisheries, and the public health sector. Farmers, commercial enterprises, patients, doctors and policy makers have to adapt pro-actively to cope with, prevent or reduce potential negative impacts. Adaptation should be relatively easy in most cases because people have to 'only' change the timing of their activities. However, pro-active adaptation is currently often unfeasible because stakeholders do not know what phenological changes will happen where and when. They also are not aware of the ecological and socio-economic consequences of such phenological changes. They seem to miss a sense of urgency to act. Furthermore, they miss an understanding on whether, how and when to respond in order to prevent (further) negative impacts or to benefit from the emerging changes. To adequately respond to phenological change and to improve the adaptation potential, there is a need to (1) continue and improve monitoring of phenological changes; (2) advance the analysis of phenological changes and its socio-economic and environmental impact; (3) improve the projections of phenological changes and their impacts; and (4) improve the communication on observations, knowledge, tools and techniques. Phenological networks should take the lead in all these four activities. They should, however, closely work together with major stakeholders.