A statistical study on the temporal distribution of ionospheric TEC anomalies prior to M7.0+ earthquakes during 2003-2012

Abstract

In this paper, we conduct a new statistical study on the temporal distribution of the Global Positioning System Total Electron Content (GPS TEC) anomalies prior to the earthquakes with magnitude M≥7.0 in the global area during 2003-2012 by the method of statistical analysis. The temporal distribution of the ionospheric TEC anomalies prior to the earthquakes with magnitude M≥7.0 is for the first time studied. It has been observed that the ionospheric negative anomalies mainly occur in one week prior to the earthquakes, and only when the magnitude is greater than or equal to 7.6, the ionospheric anomalies will have the greatest probability of occurrence in the afternoon to sunset (i.e. between 12:00 and 18:00 local time). They last for approximate 2 hr, but the chance of detecting the significant enhancement in the ionospheric TEC seems not to be a function of time and there is no clear tendency for positive anomalies. In addition, the relationship of the occurrence rate of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies and the magnitude of the earthquake is discussed, and it is found that the observed ionospheric TEC anomalies within several days before the earthquakes are highly likely to be related with the earthquakes because the occurrence rate of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies seems to increase slightly with the earthquake magnitude increasing. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.