Economic analysis and business model exploration of hydrogen transport - Case study of heavy-duty FCV demonstration in China

Abstract

Hydrogen is considered an important future energy to achieve a carbon neutral energy system, and transport is the most mature area to start a hydrogen economy. China proposed new policies in 2020 to encourage the development of FCV especially in heavy-duty transport, however little research can provide appropriate framework and practical data for the economic analysis of such demonstration, to provide important and rational support for the decision making of local government. This paper introduces a planned heavy-duty FCV demonstration project in city A, provides a framework for its economic analysis as well as practical data from FCV manufacturers, hydrogen producers and suppliers. Results show comprehensive investment required for such demonstration project, cash flow for the planning period and key impacting factors considering the whole circle of hydrogen production-transmission-refilling-utility. Findings show that FCV application shows better profitability than the hydrogen supply business, and long-term FCV planning targets are crucial to all practical business models; Capex reduction is the common and crucial element to realize commercial application of hydrogen transport, and hydrogen supply chain should be integrated to reduce the overall hydrogen cost.