Fuzzy cognitive maps to explore the repercussions of less precipitation on the water supply service of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

Abstract

Currently the drinking water supply service system of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) faces serious problems in its operation, which generate highly negative impacts on the impacts on the environmental, social and provider sectors of this system. Given the presence of climate change, we consider the possible scenario in which a decrease in average annual precipitation occurs in the area. To evaluate its impact on each of the sectors, the fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) associated with each of them was constructed. This framework allowed the study of a system whose available information presented large ranges of uncertainty, in addition to being highly complex. Based on the results obtained, we present a mitigation measure for each sector, in order to provide efficient actions to decisions makers. The mathematical simulation was carried out programming in Python