Direct and indirect determinants of COVID-19 outbreak in Australia: a spatial panel data analysis

Abstract

An outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was experienced all around the world. Identifying the spatial prevalence of this disease can lead to more effective management and control of this outbreak. Thus, the main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the spatial effects of COVID-19 from early June 2020 to mid-August 2020, in Australia. For this purpose, the effect of hospitalized Intensive Care Unit (ICU) cases, death cases, active cases, and recovered cases on confirmed COVID-19 cases was estimated using the Spatial Durbin Model. The empirical results reveal a significant positive relationship between confirmed COVID-19 cases and death cases, active cases, and ICU hospitalizations. Also, the recovered cases have a significant negative effect on confirmed COVID-19 cases. In addition, hospitalized ICU cases have the biggest effect on confirmed COVID-19 cases in the short and long run. These results can help healthcare providers in managing the demand for healthcare services throughout the country. Moreover, government officials and policymakers can use the findings of this study in the effective application of quarantine practices as well as resource allocation in different states during this pandemic.