Computer-aided event tree synthesis on the basis of case-based reasoning

Abstract

Emergency analysis and technogenic risk assessment are the key concepts of the technogenic safety research. There are some methods used for their investigation, for example, the event tree analysis method. But the high complexity of building and verification of event trees of complex technogenic systems significantly weakens the effectiveness of the practical application of this method and requires development of special software and modification of the standard methodology. This paper describes a new algorithm for computer-aided event tree synthesis for technical systems in petrochemistry. The proposed algorithm is based on the original model of the object technical state dynamics which describes cause-effect relationships between the parameters in different time intervals and a case-based reasoning approach. The model of the technical state dynamics is formalized in the form of the technical states matrix. The case-based reasoning approach is used for implementation of the algorithm proposed. The elements of software, including functions, the architecture and the information process of event tress synthesis are described.