A Systems Approach to Understanding Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East in the Face of a Global Water Shortage

Abstract

In this paper the potential for conflict in the Middle East due to the depleting of regional water reserves is explored and the implications for regional policy making, in the light of other tensions are investigated. We use System Dynamics to develop a model for water resources management and explore via simulation issues that emerge as important, in order to highlight required policies. This analysis validates part of the existing thinking and policies in place and signifies further the need for transboundary cooperation and emphasis on areas that may not be viewed traditionally as key priorities (e.g. demand management, as opposed to continuity of supply).