Development of a technique for predicting the human response to an emergency situation

Abstract

This paper presents development work on a new approach for predicting the human response to an emergency situation. The study builds upon an initial investigation in which 20 participants were asked to predict what actions they would take in the event of a domestic fire [1]. The development work involved a retest with an additional 20 participants to investigate the reliability of the approach. Furthermore, the analysis procedure was improved such that the results represented more accurately those which could be obtained from practical application of the approach. As found in the initial investigation, the frequencies and sequences of the reported acts had significant relationships with a study of behavior in real fires [2] (Spearman's rho: 0.323, N=55, p<0.05) and (Spearman's rho: 0.340, N=37, p<0.05), respectively. Further development work is required, but the results indicate that the approach may have use for predicting human behavior in emergencies. © 2009 Springer Berlin Heidelberg.