Fourier series estimator for predicting international market price of white sugar

Abstract

Global sugar industry and trade is expected to undergo a fundamental change with long-term impacts, marked by the elimination of agricultural subsidies agreed in 2013. Because of that, price of sugar in International market will rise and can affect Country's economy. The government must make regulation to maintain price of sugar for their country. Therefore, government need to predict price of white sugar in international market for make regulation The price of white sugar on international market can be estimated and predicted using the Fourier series estimator that can analyze periodic data. The response variable is the price of white sugar on international and the predictor variable is the month order. Predicting international market price of white sugar by using Fourier series estimator gives mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value of 5.43% that is less than 10%. It means that Fourier series estimator has high accuracy for predicting international market price of white sugar.