An early warning system to forecast the close of the spring burning window from satellite-observed greenness

Abstract

Spring represents the peak of human-caused wildfire events in populated boreal forests, resulting in catastrophic loss of property and human life. Human-caused wildfire risk is anticipated to increase in northern forests as fuels become drier, on average, under warming climate scenarios and as population density increases within formerly remote regions. We investigated springtime human-caused wildfire risk derived from satellite-observed vegetation greenness in the early part of the growing season, a period of increased ignition and wildfire spread potential from snow melt to vegetation green-up with the aim of developing an early warning wildfire risk system. The initial system was developed for 392,856 km2 of forested lands with satellite observations available prior to the start of the official wildfire season and predicted peak human-caused wildfire activity with 10-day accuracy for 76% of wildfire-protected lands by March 22. The early warning system could have significant utility as a cost-effective solution for wildfire managers to prioritize the deployment of wildfire protection resources in wildfire-prone landscapes across boreal-dominated ecosystems of North America, Europe, and Russia using open access Earth observations.