Modelling the Influence of Unhealthy Human Behaviour on the Spread of Zoonosis Disease that May Cause a Possible Future Pandemic

Abstract

This paper addresses some strategies to improve the quality of management system in the laboratories by presenting models and methods for analyzing the effect of un-healthy human behavior on zoonosis disease spread and possible future pandemic. The possible future pandemic is modelled by a hypothetical mutated virus as a result of virus recombination. The variability of seven disease states among anima and humans are described as deterministic processes and modeled in the form of a well-defined initial value problem. The epidemic model has six disease state equilibria of which four are globally asymptotically stable and the others are locally asymptotically stable. Analyses show that: (i) to control the spread of disease means to control the effective rate of disease transmissions (ii) containing the disease in the animal world does not stop the spread of the implicated diseases in the human world. (iii) the spread of the mutant virus has a bigger magnitude than original in terms of the proportion of individuals acquiring the disease. (iv) reducing the contact among the animals will reduce the spread of the disease in the animal and human population but not stop the spread of the mutant virus. (v) social distancing programs reduce the number of human casualties.