Small states and the dilemma of geopolitics: role change in Finland and Sweden

Abstract

On 18 May 2022, Finland and Sweden formally applied for membership of NATO.1 At the stroke of a pen, both countries abolished their longstanding policies of military non-alignment (stretching back over 200 years, in the case of Sweden), which not only defined their security policies but also constituted a central building block of their world-views and sense of Self.2 Although there is little doubt that Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 constituted the tipping-point for these decisions, Finland and Sweden have been growing increasingly concerned over the wider impact of the geopolitical shift in international politics on their traditional international identity and longstanding foreign policy goals.3 In small liberal states such as Finland and Sweden, the geopolitical shift-with the ensuing weakening of the rules-based international order-poses a dilemma for governing elites, which feel compelled to undertake a reassessment of foreign policy in the face of external challenges largely outside their control without jeopardizing national autonomy and deep-seated social identities. The decisions of Finland and Sweden to join NATO are therefore part of a bigger shift away from their traditional brands of autonomous foreign policy to integrate more deeply into western alliances, thereby affecting their longstanding foreign policy roles.