Triangles in Heterosexual HIV Transmission

Abstract

A model for HIV transmission is presented which treats concurrent partnerships in the heterosexual population. The basic reproduction number R0 is calculated as a function of behavorial parameters for the duration of partnerships and for contact rates with primary and secondary partners. The threshold condition for an epidemic, R0>l, is used to derive minimum bounds for the number of partners of an infected index case during the infectious period. If one takes into account the total number of contacts during the infectious period, the values for Ra are similar for a given number of partners irrespective of whether the partnerships are consecutive or concurrent. To what extent R0 can be estimated on the basis of behavioral data in a susceptible population