Kernel density estimation methods for a geostatistical approach in seismic risk analysis: The case study of Potenza Hilltop Town (Southern Italy)

Abstract

This paper focuses on an overview of kernel density estimation especially for what concerns the choice of bandwidth and intensity parameters according to local conditions. A case study inherent seismic risk analysis of the old town centre of Potenza hilltop town has been discussed, with particular attention to the evaluation of the possible local amplifying factors. This first integrated application of kernel density maps to analyse seismic damage scenarios with a geostatistical approach allowed to evaluate the local geological, geomorphological and 1857 earthquake macroseismic data, offering a new point of view of civil protection planning. The aim of geostatistical approach is to know seismic risk variability at local level, modelling and visualizing it. © 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.