Consistent changes in twenty-first century daily precipitation from regional climate simulations for Korea using two convection parameterizations

Abstract

We present an analysis of the projected daily precipitation over Korea from regional climate change scenarios (1971-2080) implementing different convection schemes (Grell vs. MIT-Emanuel) within the RegCM3 double-nested system. Daily precipitation characteristics are investigated in terms of the normalized frequency and amount of precipitation and the extreme precipitation above the 95th percentile. For reference period (1971-2000), the MIT-Emanuel simulation is superior to the Grell simulation for daily precipitation regardless of frequency and intensity. However, future changes tend to be similar. This behavior can be explained partly by a constraint on the normalized distribution of precipitation that separates increasing from decreasing contributions to the normalized spectrum. Precipitation with intensity above the 50th percentile tends to increase its contribution to total precipitation while precipitation of lower intensity tends to yield a reduced contribution. The change signal of winter precipitation is clearer, showing a well-defined pattern of more intense precipitation. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.