Regression analysis of wildfire suppression

Abstract

One of the most important aims of forest fire research is how to better control forest fires. One way to attain this aim is to develop better decision tools for estimating how much water is required for extinguishing a fire with a specific set of conditions. There has in the past generally been little research conducted with respect to water requirements when suppressing a wildfire. A number of experiments were conducted in the early '70s where a spray rig with a nozzle arrangement was used in order to apply water uniformly across a fuel bed. Two studies regarding the required duration of water application related to fires in buildings were conducted in the past. Both studies were based upon statistical data from fire brigades; the duration of water application was determined as a function of the fire area. This paper encompasses an analysis of more than 64,000 wildfires occurring in Sweden between 1996 and 2009. The values calculated from the obtained formulations with regression analysis were found to be in good agreement in the following cases: The amount of water as a function of the extinguishing time, the extinguishing time as a function of the fire area; and the fire area as a function of the flame height. It was observed that the derived equations from the analysis in the above cases could provide an accurate computation. These relationships could be of considerable use when developing decision tools for wildfire suppression, optimizing the use of resources during the suppression activities. © 2012 WIT Press.