Uncertainty analysis of future summer monsoon duration and area over East Asia using a multi-GCM/multi-RCM ensemble

Abstract

This study examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of the summer monsoon rainy season over East Asia using six regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Coordinated Regional Domain Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia Phase II project. The framework combining multiple global climate models (GCMs) with multiple RCMs produces a larger spread in summer monsoon characteristics than driving GCMs only, enabling a better quantification of uncertainty factors. On average, the RCM simulations reproduce the observed summer monsoon duration and area better than the corresponding boundary GCMs, implying the added values of downscaling. Both the area and duration of the East Asian summer monsoon are projected to increase by the late 21st century, more strongly in high emission scenarios than in low emission scenarios, particularly in China. Different responses between scenarios, which indicate warming mitigation benefits, only become significant in the late 21st century due to large intersimulation uncertainties. Analysis of variance results show that uncertainty in future monsoon area and duration is larger between boundary GCMs than between RCMs over East Asia and its coastal subregions. A strong intersimulation relationship between RCMs and GCMs supports that boundary GCMs substantially diversify downscaled RCM projections through different climate sensitivities. Furthermore, the distinct subregional responses in future monsoon area and duration emphasize the importance of fine-resolution projections with appropriate uncertainty measures for better preparing region-specific adaptation plans.