REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE: To be included in Future Flood Risk Analysis?

Abstract

Floods and other seemingly weather related natural disasters have been increasing not only by reported damage but also by frequency and intensity (www.munichre.com). As global climate models predict a clear increase in temperature and weather extremes (IPCC 2001) due to increase in the atmospheric concentration of green house gases (GHG) it is obvious to relate the reported increase in flood risk to climate change. However, extreme precipitation is neither correctly modelled in existing global models nor correctly covered in existing statistical analysis of the past due to its inherent variability in space and time. This is specially true for the data base of future risk analysis as along with the spatial extend of typical flood prone catchments the need for regional and local estimates of extreme precipitation is increasingly important. New methods as well as new combinations of existing methods are required to address climate change related flood risk on the regional level.