PreMevE: New Predictive Model for Megaelectron-Volt Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt

Abstract

This work designs a new model called PreMevE to predict storm time distributions of relativistic electrons within Earth's outer radiation belt. This model takes advantage of the cross-energy, cross-L-shell, and cross-pitch angle coherence associated with wave-electron resonant interactions, ingests observations from belt boundaries—mainly by a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Polar Operational Environmental Satellite in low-Earth orbit, and provides high-fidelity nowcast (multiple-hour prediction) and forecast (>~1 day) of MeV electron fluxes over L-shells between 2.8 and 7 through linear prediction filters. PreMevE can not only reliably anticipate incoming enhancements of MeV electrons during storms with at least 1-day forewarning time but also accurately specify the evolving event-specific electron spatial distributions afterward. The performance of PreMevE is assessed against long-term in situ data from one Van Allen Probe and a Los Alamos National Laboratory geosynchronous satellite. This new model enhances our preparedness for severe MeV electron events in the future and further adds new science utility to existing and next-generation low-Earth orbit space infrastructure.