A mockup stochastic program to study the impact of design uncertainty on ETO shipbuilding planning

Abstract

A major driver of planning complexity in dynamically changing ETO shipbuilding is design uncertainty far into the design planning and production processes. This leads to uncertainty in task and project completion time, and complex dependencies and correlations driven by the uncertainty in multiple task parameters. The problem is difficult to be solved exactly, and decision-making is largely based on experience and gut feeling, with subsequent behavioral chal- lenges. We build a mockup stochastic program to draw attention to- and analyze the complexity of formulating and solving the engineering design planning problem. We demonstrate how design uncertainty is affecting the planning complexity and solutions.