Shift in potential evapotranspiration and its implications for dryness/wetness over Southwest China

Abstract

During 1961-2012, the regional average annual potential evapotranspiration (PET) of Southwest China (SWC) and the four subregions (named as SR1, SR2, SR3, and SR4) showed different decreases (excluding SR3); while the breakpoint analysis suggested that PETchanges (i.e., signandmagnitude)haveshifted. Basedon a group of sensitivity experiments with Penman-Monteith equation and a new separating method, the contributions of each climate factor alone (i.e., net radiation,Rn;meantemperature, Tave; windspeed,Wnd;and vapor pressure deficit, Vpd) to PET changes were calculated. Results showed that declinedWndin SR1, reduced Rn in SR2, SR4, and SWC, and increased Vpd in SR3 were responsible for the PET changes during 1961-2012. However, the determinant factor for each subregion and SWC varied in different segmented periods, which were identified using the breakpoint analysis. The impacts of PET shifts on SWC dryness/wetness (reflected by the 3 month Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration index, SPEI-3) during 1961-2012 were then quantified. Briefly, SPEI-3 changes in SR3, SR4, andSWChad the determinant factor of PET in the first one or two period(s), and precipitation in the last period; while they were attributed to PET (precipitation) in SR1 (SR2) for each segmented period. It is found that PET and precipitation had comparable contributions to the variations in SWC dryness/wetness. Our findings have suggested that more attentions should be paid to the impacts of PET changes and shifts in future studies of dryness/wetness or drought.