Illusion of knowledge: is the Dunning-Kruger effect in political sophistication more widespread than before?

Abstract

The dramatic expansion of social and digital media during the past fifteen years has fundamentally transformed the media landscape in Western democracies. Nevertheless, we still know little about the impact it has had on aggregate levels of political sophistication. Previous research has suggested that increased information availability may result in inflated self-perceptions of (political) sophistication. Based on the Dunning-Kruger effect, it is plausible to think that low-sophistication individuals are particularly vulnerable for overconfidence in political sophistication. Using a repeated-measures cross-sectional survey data with samples representative of the Finnish voting-age population, this study analyzes the prevalence of the Dunning-Kruger effect in 2008 and 2020, before and after social media revolutionized the political information landscape. Although the Dunning-Kruger effect is more widespread in 2020 than in 2008, the increase is not statistically significant at the individual-level. However, the findings suggest that at the individual-level, overconfidence is linked to relying on internet and social media for political news, but not to relying on traditional media. This aligns with recent research showing that social media contributes at best minimally to political learning. Instead, it seems to amplify overconfidence, especially among the least knowledgeable segment of the population.