Quantifying the historic and future response of karst spring discharge to climate variability and change at a snow-influenced temperate catchment in central Europe

Abstract

Climate change is projected to threaten groundwater resources in many regions, but projections are highly uncertain. Quantifying the historic impact potentially allows for understanding of hydrologic changes and increases confidence in the predictions. In this study, the responses of karst discharge to historic and future climatic changes are quantified at Blautopf Spring in southern Germany, which is one of the largest karst springs in central Europe and belongs to a regional aquifer system relevant to the freshwater supply of millions of people. Statistical approaches are first adopted to quantify the hydrodynamic characteristics of the karst system and to analyse the historic time series (1952–2021) of climate variables and discharge. A reservoir model is then calibrated and evaluated with the observed discharge and used to simulate changes with three future climate-change scenarios. Results show that changes in the annual mean and annual low discharge were not significant, but the annual peak discharge shifted to a low state (<13.6 m3 s−1) from 1988 onwards due to decreasing precipitation, increasing air temperature, and less intense peak snowmelt. The peak discharge may decrease by 50% in this century according to the projections of all climate-change scenarios. Despite there being no significant historic changes, the base flow is projected to decrease by 35–55% by 2100 due to increasing evapotranspiration. These findings show the prolonged impact of climate change and variability on the floods and droughts at the springs in central Europe, and may imply water scarcity risks at similar climatic and geologic settings worldwide.