Potential productivity loss from uncorrected and under-corrected presbyopia in low- and middle-income countries: A life table modeling study

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the burden of potential productivity losses due to uncorrected and under-corrected presbyopia in LMICs among the working-age population in both the cross-sectional and longitudinal manner. Methods: We extracted data for the prevalence of presbyopia from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. Data for the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita were extracted from the World Bank database and Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook. We introduced life table models to construct age cohorts (in 5-year age groups) of the working-age population (aged from 40 to 64 years old) in LMICs, with simulated follow-up until 65 years old in people with and without uncorrected presbyopia. The differences in productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) lived and productivity between these two cohorts were calculated. The potential productivity loss was estimated based on GDP per capita. The WHO standard 3% annual discount rate was applied to all years of life and PALYs lived. Results: In 2019, there were 238.40 million (95% confidence interval [CI]: 150.92–346.78 million) uncorrected and under-corrected presbyopia cases in LMICs, resulting in 54.13 billion (current US dollars) (95% confidence interval [CI]: 34.34–79.02 billion) potential productivity losses. With simulated follow-up until retirement, those with uncorrected and under-corrected presbyopia were predicted to experience an additional loss of 155 million PALYs (an average loss of 0.7 PALYs per case), which was equivalent to a total loss of US$ 315 billion (an average loss of US$ 1453.72 per person). Conclusions: Our findings highlight the considerable productivity losses due to uncorrected and under-corrected presbyopia in LMICs, especially in a longitudinal manner. There is a great need for the development of enabling eye care policies and programs to create access to eye care services, and more healthcare investment in the correction of presbyopia in the working-age population in LMICs. This study could provide evidences for some potential health-related strategies for socio-economic development.