The Identification of Tsunami Height Correlation Model with Earthquake Parameters

Abstract

Tsunami is an event triggered by earthquake parameters. The earthquake parameters can provide information on the probability of a tsunami even that can be used in estimating the height of a tsunami. By excluding information beyond the earthquake parameters, this research aims to derive a mathematical model that describing the correlation between the height of the tsunami and the parameters of earthquakes. The method used in this research is to apply one of the multivariate methods of time series, namely the transfer function. Based on diagnostic results of Autocorrelation Function plot, Partial Autocorrelation Function and parameter significance, for the strength and depth of the earthquake selected model are ARIMA model (0, 1, 1). Based on the results of the processing of the input-output series model, cross-correlation, and weighting response formed twelve models of possible transfer functions to be modeled relationships between variables Tsunami height (Y), Strength of the earthquake (X 1), and Depth of the earthquake (X 2). By looking at the minimum AIC values of the model parameters, where the X 1 variable is 1679,156 and X 2 of 1668,258, we get the order transfer function model is ((0,3,0), (9,0,2), (0,1)), with the mathematical equation model as follows: .