Asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks on government expenditures: Evidence from Saudi Arabia

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of oil price shocks on government expenditures on the health and education sectors in Saudi Arabia. Using a quarterly dataset 1990Q1–2017Q2 and employing a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, our research shows evidence of a non-linear relationship between oil prices and government expenditures in Saudi Arabia, where a negative oil price shock would have a statistically significant different impact in the long run compared to a positive shock. We build upon our empirical findings and draw some policy recommendations for Vision 2030 of Saudi Arabia.