Statistical post-processing of precipitation forecasts using circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks

Abstract

Statistical post-processing techniques are widely used to reduce systematic biases and quantify forecast uncertainty in numerical weather prediction (NWP). In this study, we propose a method to correct the raw daily forecast precipitation by combining large-scale circulation patterns with local spatiotemporal information such as topography and meteorological factors. Particularly, we first use the self-organizing map (SOM) model to classify large-scale circulation patterns for each season, then we build the convolutional neural network (CNN) model to extract spatial information (e.g., elevation, specific humidity, and mean sea level pressure) and the long short-term memory network (LSTM) model to extract time series (e.g., t, t-1, t-2), and we finally correct local precipitation for each circulation pattern separately. Furthermore, the proposed method (SOM-CNN-LSTM) is compared with other benchmark methods (i.e., CNN, LSTM, and CNN-LSTM) in the Huaihe River basin with a lead time of 15d from 2007 to 2021. The results show that the proposed SOM-CNN-LSTM post-processing method outperforms other benchmark methods for all lead times and each season with the largest correlation coefficient improvement (32.30%) and root mean square error reduction (26.58%). Moreover, the proposed method can effectively capture the westward and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), which impacts the basin's summer rain. The results illustrate that incorporating large-scale circulation patterns with local spatiotemporal information is a feasible and effective post-processing method to improve forecasting skills, which would benefit hydrological forecasts and other applications.