Characteristics and long-term variability of occurrences of storm surges in the baltic sea

Abstract

Understanding the characteristics of storm surges is especially important in the context of ongoing climate changes, which often lead to catastrophic events in the coastal zones of seas and oceans. For this reason, this paper presents the characteristics of the Baltic Sea storm surges and trends in their occurrences through the past 60 years. The study material was based on hourly sea level readings, spanning the years 1961–2020, retrieved from 45 Baltic Sea tide gauges, as well as air pressure and wind field data. Owing to the analysis and visualization of storm situations, two main types of storm surges were identified and characterized: a surge driven by wind and a surge driven by subpressure associated with an active low pressure area. This paper also discusses a third, mixed type of storm surge. Further analyses have indicated that through the past 60 years in the Baltic Sea, the duration of high sea level has increased by 1/3, the average number of storm surges has increased from 3.1 to 5.5 per year, and the maximum annual sea levels have increased—with a trend value of 0.28 cm/year. These processes, also observed in other marine basins, provide strong evidence for contemporary climate change.