Prediction of the COVID-19 Vaccination Target Achievement with Exponential Regression

Abstract

The achievement of the national COVID-19 vaccination target in Indonesia is often reported to be uncertain with various existing obstacles. Prediction with exponential regression modeling is done by adopting part of the SKKNI Data Science with the stages of Data Understanding, Data Preparation, Modeling, Model Evaluation. The vaccination dataset from the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indonesia for the period from January 13, 2021 to October 10, 2021, was randomly separated into training data of 0.8 parts and testing data of 0.2 parts. The optimal parameters of the exponential function are found using the scipy.optimize library in IPython. The model obtained was evaluated using MAE, RMSE, and R-Squared metrics on normalized training data, training data, test data, and recent data for seven days from 11 to 17 October 2021. The prediction results show that the vaccination target will be achieved 100 percent on January 18, 2022, while on December 31, 2021, only 80 percent will be achieved. From the recent data, it appears that more acceleration is needed, especially if it is desired to be achieved in December 2021 as determined by President Joko Widodo, there will be a shortfall of 20 percent based on the prediction results.