Crime, Weather and Climate Change in Australia*

Abstract

We estimate the effect of temperature on monthly crime using a panel dataset that matches weather with crime rates for over 3,000 postcodes in Australia over the period 2001–2019. We find that a standard deviation increase in average temperature is associated with a 0.008–0.011 standard deviation increase in the crime rate, depending on the specification. This translates to over 72,000 additional crimes per year across Australia. We estimate that over the course of the rest of the century, under a business-as-usual pathway, climate change will be responsible for approximately 1.64 million additional crimes.