An empirical model to estimate ultraviolet erythemal transmissivity

Abstract

An empirical model to estimate the solar ultraviolet erythemal irradiance (UVER) for all-weather conditions is presented. This model proposes a power expression with the UV transmissivity as a dependent variable, and the slant ozone column and the clearness index as independent variables. The UVER were measured at three stations inSouth-Western Spain during a five year period (2001-2005). A dataset corresponding to the period 2001-2004 was used to develop the model and an independent dataset (year 2005) for validation purposes. For all three locations, the empirical model explains more than 95% of UV transmissivity variability due to changes in the two independent variables. In addition, the coefficients of the models show that when the slant ozone amount decreases 1%, UV transmissivity and, therefore, UVER values increase approximately 1.33%-1.35%. The coefficients also show that when the clearness index decreases 1%, UV transmissivity increase 0.75%-0.78%. The validation of the model provided satisfactory results, with low mean absolute bias error (MABE), about 7%-8% for all stations. Finally, a one-day ahead forecast of the UV Index for cloud-free cases is presented, assuming the persistence in the total ozone column. The percentage of days with differences between forecast and experimental UVI lower than ±0.5 unit and ±1 unit is within the range of 28% to 37%, and 60% to 75%, respectively. Therefore, the empirical model proposed in this work provides reliable forecast cloud-free UVI in order to inform the public about the possible harmful effects of UV radiation over-exposure.