Least-cost technology investments in the passenger vehicle and electric sectors to meet greenhouse gas emissions targets to 2050

Abstract

This paper presents an optimization-based model to compute least-cost-to-society strategies for technology deployment and retirement in the passenger vehicle and electric power generation sectors to meet greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) through 2050. The model output provides a timeline and technology quantities to be deployed or retired early for years 2011 through 2050, as well as annual and total coststo- society and GHG emissions. Model inputs include costs of deploying or retiring incumbent and elective GHG-reducing technologies, as well as numerous scenarios for energy prices and technology costs. On top of constraints on GHG emissions, as well as scenario constraints for retirement and market factors, the model framework provides the ability to investigate the effect of additional constraints such as renewable portfolio standards and increases in corporate average fuel economy. Ultimately, the framework is targeted in scope to operate in a broader policy discussion capable of quantitatively evaluating existing or proposed policy measures for any country or geographic region. The paper describes the model framework and its various components, along with its relevance and application in technology policy. It also presents the mathematical formulation of the linear programming model that runs at the core of the framework. Results are presented from application of the framework to the U.S. automotive market operating under IPCC GHG constraints to determine technology deployment and retirement trajectories for automotive technologies through 2050 under various future scenarios.