Reliability Analysis of Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on Step-Down-Stress Testing in Corrosive Environments

Abstract

Reliability analysis provides a basis for the anticorrosion design and maintenance strategy of pipelines. This paper introduces a calculation method for corroded pipeline life reliability by step-down-stress testing (SDST) and Weibull distribution. SDST is used to obtain the corrosion rate of N80 steel under the action of an H2S and CO2 environment at four different temperatures. The Arrhenius model is used to establish the conversion model of failure time and then obtain quasi-samples with parameters. The quasi-samples are used to estimate the parameters of the Weibull distribution, and finally, we can obtain the reliability function of the corroded pipeline. The life reliability curve shows that the pipeline life decreases with the increase of temperature, and when the operation temperature is 363 K, the average life is 10.09 years, which is far less than the designed life. The life reliability of the pipeline decreases with increasing time, when the service life of a pipe with 90% reliability is approximately 7.4 years, and with 50% reliability, it will increase to approximately 10.2 years. With increasing temperature, the average life of the pipeline declines, and at the same temperature, the higher the reliability is, the lower the average life of the pipeline, which provides a reference for the rational use and maintenance decisions of N80 steel pipes. The life reliability of a pipeline for which the operating time is shorter has a smaller temperature effect than that the operating time is longer. This proves that the effect of temperature on life reliability accumulates. This paper strives to provide a scientific basis for the safety management of oil and gas pipelines.