Assessing the Effect of Climate Change on Hibernating Mammals Using Nonlinear Mixed Effects Method

Abstract

A hibernating lifestyle makes animals sensitive to the changing of the environmental temperature. Therefore, the effect of currently ongoing climate change might be considerable on these species. To assess this effect, we estimated the body mass change during hibernation under three different climate scenarios, using computational modeling. The chosen nonlinear mixed effects modeling technique was suitable to describe body mass change during hibernation. The proposed model predicted a decrease in spring emergence body mass in predicted (2070–2100) compared to control period (1960–1990). Probably this difference (*2 g) has an insignificant effect on the survival of hibernating animals. Such small disturbances can be compensated by the animals themselves or by the advantageous side effects of climate change (extended active period, enhanced primer production), but along with other disturbances, such as human activities (e.g., landscape using) might contribute to altering population dynamics.