FUTURE PROJECTION of ELECTRICITY DEMAND and THERMAL COMFORT for August in NAGOYA CITY by WRF-CM-BEM

Abstract

Extreme high temperature events occur frequently in Nagoya city of Japan, and have been of great concern recently because they bring risks to the energy supply, public health, and more. In this study, changes in electricity demand and thermal comfort in Nagoya city with future climate change were projected by WRF-CM-BEM which coupled a multi-layer urban canopy model CM, and a building energy model BEM in a regional climate model WRF. The results showed that summer time daily mean electric demand and human thermal comfort (SET∗) in Nagoya city were projected to increase by about +4.9 W/floor m2 and 2.8 °C in the 2070s, respectively. However, sensitivity experiments indicated that urban greening adaptation strategy have the potential to reduce by 33% and 10% of above projected values, respectively. In comparison with urban greening, anthropogenic heat reduction strategy was estimated to have smaller influence to improve future electric demand and human thermal comfort in Nagoya city.