Will Brexit Age Well? Cohorts, Seasoning and the Age–Leave Gradient: On the Evolution of UK Support for the European Union

Abstract

In the UK’s 2016 Brexit referendum, young voters were more likely than their elders to support remaining in the European Union. Using half a century of data and new techniques, we find that recent cohorts tend to be more pro-European than their predecessors, but that voters also become more sceptical towards Europe as they age. Much of the pro-Europeanism of recent cohorts is associated with greater years of education. We also document large nationwide swings in sentiment that have little to do with age or cohort effects. These time effects are plausibly associated with, inter alia, macroeconomic fluctuations, financial conditions and geopolitical circumstances, but they also could have other sources. They dominate the impact of the estimated age and cohort effects and will crucially determine future UK support for membership in the European Union.