Planning and markets at work: Seattle under growth management and economic pressure

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of Seattle’s redevelopment under Washington State’s urban containment policy and the city’s own urban village plan, with a particular focus on outcomes that arise via a combination of urban planning and land market activity. By comparing the city’s parcel layer between 2010 and 2020, the analysis tracks changes in the form of land consolidation and subdivision, which indicate the intensity of redevelopment activities motivated by the market. It reveals that much redevelopment has happened in single-and multifamily areas, but multifamily areas are more likely to have changed. By implementing an exploratory discrete choice model, the analysis also reveals that urban village policy may reduce redevelopment within Seattle—but one subtype, so-called urban hubs, is more likely to accommodate redevelopment. This leads to further discussion of the goals and effectiveness of this urban village policy. Overall, the findings of this work form a picture of a happy, healthy, and sustainable city that sets a high bar for other cities seeking to achieve the same success.