Spatial variations in terrestrial water storage with variable forces across the yellow river basin

Abstract

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations are a result of the interconnected impact of various variables including climate, hydrology, ecology, and anthropogenic activities. Previous studies have indicated that climate factors (e.g., precipitation and potential evapotranspiration), vegetation restoration, and water withdrawals (irrigational and industrial water use) are the major determinants of TWS depletion across the Yellow River Basin (YRB). However, few studies have provided explicit information about the main forcing variables that determine spatiotemporal variations in TWS and the synergies among these factors. This study explored the explicit understanding of hydro-climatic and socio-ecological determinants and the key interacting processes that affected the TWS variations across the Yellow River Basin in northern China. The multivariate adaptive regression splines model was employed to establish the relationship function of the long-term trends for the dependent (TWS) and independent (explanatory) variables consisting of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), hydro-climate, and human water withdrawal. The long-term trends estimated from the MARS model reproduced the ones calculated by Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment gravity satellites, with a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.83 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.2 mm. The results showed that precipitation, minimum temperature, runoff, base flow, water withdrawal for electricity, and NDVI were the main drivers of the spatiotemporal variations in the TWS, of which minimum temperature and runoff played a considerable role in TWS variations through the interplay with other variables. The critical values of the trend for interactive variables, which could alter the acting direction of the synergy on the TWS, were also estimated. In view of the connotation of interactive variables, we suggested that spatiotemporal variations in TWS resulted from the coupling of the hydrological energy system, hydrological ecosystem, and hydrological system in the YRB, of which the hydrological system plays the most significant role, followed by the hydrological ecosystem.