Predicting the Magnetic Fields of a Stealth CME Detected by Parker Solar Probe at 0.5 au

Abstract

Stealth coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are eruptions from the Sun that are not associated with appreciable low-coronal signatures. Because they often cannot be linked to a well-defined source region on the Sun, analysis of their initial magnetic configuration and eruption dynamics is particularly problematic. In this article, we address this issue by undertaking the first attempt at predicting the magnetic fields of a stealth CME that erupted in 2020 June from the Earth-facing Sun. We estimate its source region with the aid of off-limb observations from a secondary viewpoint and photospheric magnetic field extrapolations. We then employ the Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information modeling suite to evaluate its early evolution and forward model its magnetic fields up to Parker Solar Probe, which detected the CME in situ at a heliocentric distance of 0.5 au. We compare our hindcast prediction with in situ measurements and a set of flux-rope reconstructions, obtaining encouraging agreement on arrival time, spacecraft-crossing location, and magnetic field profiles. This work represents a first step toward reliable understanding and forecasting of the magnetic configuration of stealth CMEs and slow streamer-blowout events.