Fuel replacement: A possible option for Thailand energy security?

Abstract

Natural gas has been playing an important role in strengthening energy security of Thailand as over 60 percent of total natural gas consumed in the country is from the Gulf of Thailand. In the past 20 years, the average growth of natural gas demand is 5.5 percent per year. Thanks to its low carbon content, natural gas is considered as cleaner fuel comparing to other fossil-based fuels. Still, there are usages of carbon-intensive fuels such as fuel oil and coal in Thailand e.g. in the industrial sector. Most of fuel oil and coal consumed are imported from foreign countries. Replacing these fuels with natural gas may be an option for the country to promote domestic clean energy and reduce overall carbon emissions. This paper forecasts the possibility of replacing fuel oil and coal in the industrial sector with natural gas. The research starts with examining the limitations of Thai regulations, estimating the amount of natural gas required for the replacement, and forecasting future prices of all three fuels. The price projection shows an attractive option for fuel oil users as the long term price of natural gas is projected to be lower than that of fuel oil. On the contrary, the projected coal price alone will not encourage coal users to switch their fuels. Thus, strong government measures will be required to stimulate coal replacement. The result of the study will be useful for determining appropriate policies to support long-term demand for natural gas of the country.