Kazakhstan’s wheat production potential

Abstract

The Republic of Kazakhstan is a major wheat-producing and wheat-exporting country. The aim of this chapter is to analyse the potential future development trajectories of wheat production in Kazakhstan by predicting probable climatic and weather conditions, and modelling the future perspectives of wheat production and exports based on a system-dynamic approach. The simulation results show that, over the long term, the agro-ecological status of wheat production in Kazakhstan will deteriorate. The climate will become warmer and dryer, and the frequencies of drought periods and extreme weather events will increase. If inputs are not used more intensively and if management practices are not adapted, wheat yields in Kazakhstan may decline. The simulation results indicate that, despite the expected deterioration in growing conditions, wheat production in Kazakhstan has the potential to increase by up to 33% by 2035. However, the country’s export potential is likely to decline as a result of an expected expansion in the domestic consumption of wheat for food and feed.