Mathematics of Malaria and Climate Change

Abstract

This chapter is concerned with malaria and the impact of climate change on the spread of malarial diseases on the African continent. The focus is on mathematical models describing the dynamics of malaria under various climate scenarios. The models fit into the Ross-Macdonald framework, with extensions to incorporate a fuller description of the Anopheles mosquito life cycle and the basic physics of aquatic anopheline microhabitats. Macdonald's basic reproduction number, R-0, is used as the primary metric for malaria potential. It is shown that the inclusion of air-water temperature differences significantly affects predicted malaria potential. The chapter includes several maps that relate the local ambient temperature to malaria potential across the continent. Under plausible global warming scenarios, western coastal Africa is likely to see a small decrease in malaria potential, while central, and especially eastern highland Africa, may see an increase in malaria potential.