Double-hit scenario of Covid-19 and global value chains

Abstract

Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, labor force is greatly confined by quarantine (social distancing), and limited units of labor and capital are available at the workplace. Millions of employees have lost their jobs and are facing financial hardships. Likewise, capital owners have become illiquid and possibly insolvent within months. This cycle seems to continue for other factors of production as well. Even after lifting quarantines, the global trade might take months (years) to return to its actual potential. Using the GTAP-VA model, the present study simulates the impact of the double-hit scenario of Covid-19 on the global value chains and identifies production losses in different sectors of the world economy.