Scenarios for future development

Abstract

The analysis and governance of climate change in urban regions, notably in mega-urban agglomerations, faces a dual challenge: firstly, that of dealing with the increasing complexities and dynamics of the different drivers of development, institutions, and actors; secondly, of considering the limited knowledge of both climate change events and their impacts on natural and social systems, particularly at local level. Given that political and societal decisions must be taken under uncertainty conditions, the scenario method plays a major role in providing decision-makers with a basis from which to generate the relevant orientation and action knowledge. Being well-founded as a tool to cope with such complexities and uncertainties, scenarios are applied since long time in several thematic contexts. In this chapter, basic scenario functions, types, challenges and requirements are addressed and pointed out for the specific context of climate change adaptation efforts. The three-step methodological approach and the conceptual and analytical framework applied to the case of the Metropolitan Region of Santiago de Chile (MRS) are described in detail. Finally, selected methodological responses to challenges associated with the analysis and advisory efforts to improve adaptive capacities in strategic urban planning in this regional context are highlighted.