IDEA for uncertainty quantification

Abstract

It is generally agreed that an elicitation protocol for quantifying uncertainty will always benefit from the involvement of more than one domain expert. The two key mechanisms by which judgements may be pooled across experts are through striving for consensus, via behavioural aggregation, where experts share and discuss information, and via mathematical methods, where judgements are combined using a mechanistic rule. Mixed approaches combine elements of both deliberative (behavioural) and mechanical (mathematical) styles of aggregation. This chapter outlines a mixed-aggregation protocol called IDEA. It synthesises specific elements from several of the classical structured expert judgement approaches. IDEA encourages experts to Investigate, Discuss, and Estimate, and concludes with a mathematical Aggregation of judgements.