Evaluating Data Worth for Ground-Water Management under Uncertainty

Abstract

A decision framework is presented for assessing the value of ground-water sampling within the context of ground-water management under uncertainty. The framework couples two optimization models-a chance-constrained ground-water management model and an integer-programing sampling network design model-to identify optimal pumping and sampling strategies. The methodology consists of four steps: (1) The optimal ground-water management strategy for the present level of model uncertainty is determined using the chance-constrained management model; (2) for a specified data collection budget, the monitoring network design model identifies, prior to data collection, the sampling strategy that will minimize model uncertainty; (3) the optimal ground-water management strategy is recalculated on the basis of the projected model uncertainty after sampling; and (4) the worth of the monitoring strategy is assessed by comparing the value of the sample information-i.e., the projected reduction in management costs-with the cost of data collection. Steps 2-4 are repeated for a series of data collection budgets, producing a suite of management/monitoring alternatives, from which the best alternative can be selected. A hypothetical example demonstrates the methodology's ability to identify the ground-water sampling strategy with greatest net economic benefit for ground-water management.