An Alternative Risk Assessment Routine for Decision Making; Towards a VUCA Meter to Assess the Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity of Complex Projects

Abstract

DecisionsDecision in today’s world face increasingly faster rates of changeChange in complex environments. A prevalent frameworkFramework for understanding the challenges of complexity in the modern business environment is VUCA. VUCA stands for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity. Research has shown that the unique terms in the VUCA acronym call for different mitigating approaches. In order to mitigate the impact of a VUCA environment on complex projectsProject, organizations and project leaders need to know the type and severity of challenges they are dealing with in each unique project. This research project explores the existing literature and limitations for assessing projects from a VUCA perspective. It aims to draft an accessible diagnostic tool to assess the VUCA dimensions a project is facing, so that projectProject managers can effectively allocate their limited resources. The tool is tested on five complex projectsProject in the manufacturing industry, and its effectiveness is discussed.